1. INFLATION AND FALLING ENERGY PRICES The latest PCE price index rose in line with consensus expectations in October, but the divergence between the core and headline numbers reflects the disinflationary impact of falling energy prices in recent months. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy …
1. CPI INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 3.2% year-over-year in October, 50 basis points below the September reading, and follows two consecutive increases in annual CPI. Monthly CPI was flat, marking the first time the economy has experienced no month-over-month inflation since July 2022. Further, the annual increase in CPI in October …
1. WEWORK BANKRUPTCY, CRE IMPACT On November 6th, co-working trailblazer WeWork filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, bringing additional unease to an office sector battered from the residual effects of the remote-work revolution. Over the previous decade, including before the pandemic, many office landlords around the world looked to the co-working giant as the future of …
1. EMERGING TRENDS IN REAL ESTATE Investors and developers should expect an upturn in fate for the commercial real estate industry as postpandemic disruptions abate and positive cyclical forces reemerge, according to ULI-PwC’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate (ETRE) report for 2025. The likelihood that the US economy has moved beyond peak inflation and peak …
1. INTEREST RATE HIKE On November 2nd, the FOMC voted to increase the Federal Funds Rate by 75 bps for the fourth consecutive time, taking the benchmark interest rate to its highest since early 2008. The current Federal Funds Target Rate sits at 3.75%-4.00. In the accompanying statement following the meeting, the Fed shifted its …
1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Real GDP rose by 4.9% during the third quarter of 2023, its fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the advanced estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Continuing the post-pandemic storyline, robust consumer spending largely drove the increase in output but was also accompanied by increases …
1. SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT The US economy added 336,000 new jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, almost double the consensus forecasts. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%. September’s employment growth was the highest since January, reflecting continued economic and labor market growth despite higher interest rates and falling business sentiment. …
1. SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the US added 254k jobs in September, drastically defying expectations following a summer of worsening labor market conditions. The consensus forecast from economists heading into the data release was that the economy would add just 142,500 payrolls in September following massive downward revisions …
1. INTEREST RATE DECISION/ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS At its September 20th meeting, FOMC officials left their benchmark interest rate unchanged, just their second pause since they began tightening rates in March 2022. Markets and onlookers were well-prepared for the decision, with futures markets pricing in a no-hike scenario in September for the past several weeks. Like their …
1. FED INTEREST RATE CUT The Federal Reserve cut its primary policy interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) in September to a target range of 4.75%-5%, the first interest rate reduction since policymakers began their fight against postpandemic inflation in March 2022. Leading up to the September meeting, Fed Fund futures signaled that an …