1. INTEREST RATE IMPACT ON BANK SECURITIES AND CAPITAL After recent distress in the banking sector, there is a risk that many of the small and mid-sized banks that hold the bulk of US commercial real estate loans may see a credit crunch, dampening liquidity in the sector. According to Goldman Sachs, roughly 80% of …
1. INDUSTRIAL’S LARGEST OPERATORS EXPAND According to an article by Commercial Observer, Industrial real estate heavyweights Prologis and Link Logistics are leading an ongoing expansion in warehouse use despite recent reports of a post-COVIDboom slow in demand. Industrial real estate demand has softened in recent months but has retracted from record double-digit growth experienced in …
1. INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month and 6.0% year-over-year on a seasonally adjusted basis through February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ March 14th release. Both the monthly and annual measures decelerated from January. Last month’s annual inflation rate was the lowest since September 2021, while the previous two months …
1. CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS (BEIGE BOOK) According to the March 6th, 2024, release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, national economic activity increased over the previous six-week period. Eight of the twelve Federal Reserve districts reported slight to modest growth; three indicated soft growth, while one indicated a slight softening of growth. Consumer spending ticked …
1. HOMEBUILDING SENTIMENT RISES According to the latest data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), homebuilding confidence is on the rise. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) rose seven index points to a level of 42, its highest reading since September and the most significant monthly increase in the index since June …
1. INFLATION According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% month over month in January and 3.1% annually. The monthly pace of CPI rose above market expectations and triggered a brief reversal in equity markets. Fed officials have also been increasingly warning against a premature judgment on the path of …
1. JANUARY JOBS REPORT According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 517,000 jobs in January while the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.4%. The number of unemployed persons was also little changed at 5.7 million. On the surface, the January report registered way above most industry expectations, with some observers …
1. FOMC INTEREST RATE DECISION The FOMC left its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its January policy meeting as improving inflation and consumer expectations data has reduced the committee’s need to continue its monetary tightening. Still, the timing of potential rate cuts in 2024 remains uncertain as officials grapple with the complexity of domestic …
1. GDP Real GDP increased at a 2.9% annual rate in Q4 2022, according to the advance estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economic output has slowed from Q3 2022, when real GDP grew at a 3.2% annual rate. While recession fears have amplified heading into 2023, economic output has remained robust from a …
1. GDP Real US GDP expanded at a 3.3% annualized rate during Q4 of 2023, according to the advanced estimate from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The estimate surpasses the consensus projection of 2% and follows a 4.9% growth rate in Q3, bringing total 2023 US GDP to 2.5% compared to 1.9% in 2022. …