1. FED POISED TO PIVOT The FOMC is poised to cut interest rates in September for the first time in over two and a half years, evidenced by recent statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a 100% consensus forecast that has formed in futures markets. During a speech at the Fed’s annual retreat in …
1. AI AND COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE A recent article by MSCI Real Capital Analytics suggests that despite the growing concern about AI’s potential impact on commercial real estate, a balanced view should be taken that considers both the economic risks of AI and its potential positive impact on productivity. The authors argue that AI could …
1. INFLATION According to the BLS, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaccelerated on a monthly basis in July but continued to decelerate annually. Prices rose by 0.2% between June and July, following a decline of 0.1% the previous month. Prices decelerated to 2.9% year-over-year before seasonal adjustment. The monthly uptick in Core-CPI, which excludes …
1. GDP According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the second quarter, up from 1.4% in the first quarter and above the consensus forecasts of 2%. Consumer spending accelerated from the first quarter, climbing from a 1.5% annualized rate to 2.3%. Goods consumption spurred …
1. GDP According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the second quarter, up from 1.4% in the first quarter and above the consensus forecasts of 2%. Consumer spending accelerated from the first quarter, climbing from a 1.5% annualized rate to 2.3%. Goods consumption spurred …
1. INFLATION The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year through June, according to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. June’s monthly pace was a slightly uptick from May, but inflation continued to trend down on an annual basis. Shelter remains the largest contributor to month-over-month price increases, …
1. CPI INFLATION The Consumer Price Index fell by 0.1% month over month in June, its first monthly downtick in over four years, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices continue to climb annually, rising 3.0% year-over-year, but slowed, falling from an annual increase of 3.3% in May. Falling gasoline …
1. INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK Despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates constant at their June meeting, current market forecasts project an 81.8% chance that the FOMC will move forward with a 25-basis point hike in July, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Fed Watch Tool. In June, officials placed their year-plus hiking cycle on …
1. BANK STRESS TESTS According to the Federal Reserve, all 31 “systemically important financial institutions” (SIFIs) passed their annual stress tests. These tests evaluate the ability of large US banks to absorb hypothetical losses while maintaining more than their minimum required capital levels. The stress tests evaluated banks under a scenario where the unemployment rate …
1. INTEREST RATES The FOMC voted to leave rates unchanged at its June policy meeting, which aligned with market expectations. On Wednesday, markets braced for the convergence of May’s Consumer Price Index data, which arrived just a few hours before the Federal Reserve’s June policy decision, where policymakers voted to hold interest rates in place. …