1. FIRST-QUARTER GDP The US economy expanded by a 1.6% annualized rate during the first quarter of 2023, according to the latest data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. First quarter GDP fell short of most estimates. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, forecasted a 2.5% pace of growth during the quarter. Q1 2024 …
1. CPI INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-over-month and 5.0% year-over-year through March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest release. It was the slowest monthly climb for prices since December. Energy prices are down 6.4% year-over-year, with declines accelerating in March, falling 3.5% in March compared to a more tepid …
1. HOMEBUYERS ADJUSTING TO HIGHER INTEREST RATES A new survey by Fannie Mae suggests that home buyers are gradually adjusting to higher mortgage rates despite increasingly negative sentiments about the housing market. Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index dropped in March for the first time since November, primarily driven by mortgage rates that remain near …
1. INTEREST RATE IMPACT ON BANK SECURITIES AND CAPITAL After recent distress in the banking sector, there is a risk that many of the small and mid-sized banks that hold the bulk of US commercial real estate loans may see a credit crunch, dampening liquidity in the sector. According to Goldman Sachs, roughly 80% of …
1. INDUSTRIAL’S LARGEST OPERATORS EXPAND According to an article by Commercial Observer, Industrial real estate heavyweights Prologis and Link Logistics are leading an ongoing expansion in warehouse use despite recent reports of a post-COVIDboom slow in demand. Industrial real estate demand has softened in recent months but has retracted from record double-digit growth experienced in …
1. INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month and 6.0% year-over-year on a seasonally adjusted basis through February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ March 14th release. Both the monthly and annual measures decelerated from January. Last month’s annual inflation rate was the lowest since September 2021, while the previous two months …
1. CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS (BEIGE BOOK) According to the March 6th, 2024, release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, national economic activity increased over the previous six-week period. Eight of the twelve Federal Reserve districts reported slight to modest growth; three indicated soft growth, while one indicated a slight softening of growth. Consumer spending ticked …
1. HOMEBUILDING SENTIMENT RISES According to the latest data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), homebuilding confidence is on the rise. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) rose seven index points to a level of 42, its highest reading since September and the most significant monthly increase in the index since June …
1. INFLATION According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% month over month in January and 3.1% annually. The monthly pace of CPI rose above market expectations and triggered a brief reversal in equity markets. Fed officials have also been increasingly warning against a premature judgment on the path of …
1. JANUARY JOBS REPORT According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 517,000 jobs in January while the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.4%. The number of unemployed persons was also little changed at 5.7 million. On the surface, the January report registered way above most industry expectations, with some observers …