1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Real GDP rose by 4.9% during the third quarter of 2023, its fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the advanced estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Continuing the post-pandemic storyline, robust consumer spending largely drove the increase in output but was also accompanied by increases …
1. SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT The US economy added 336,000 new jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, almost double the consensus forecasts. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%. September’s employment growth was the highest since January, reflecting continued economic and labor market growth despite higher interest rates and falling business sentiment. …
1. SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the US added 254k jobs in September, drastically defying expectations following a summer of worsening labor market conditions. The consensus forecast from economists heading into the data release was that the economy would add just 142,500 payrolls in September following massive downward revisions …
1. INTEREST RATE DECISION/ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS At its September 20th meeting, FOMC officials left their benchmark interest rate unchanged, just their second pause since they began tightening rates in March 2022. Markets and onlookers were well-prepared for the decision, with futures markets pricing in a no-hike scenario in September for the past several weeks. Like their …
1. FED INTEREST RATE CUT The Federal Reserve cut its primary policy interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) in September to a target range of 4.75%-5%, the first interest rate reduction since policymakers began their fight against postpandemic inflation in March 2022. Leading up to the September meeting, Fed Fund futures signaled that an …
1. CPI INFLATION The Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month in August, its largest monthly increase this year, according to Wednesday’s release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Energy was responsible for much of the increase in headline inflation, rising 5.6% on the month, including a 10.6% increase in gasoline offset by …
1. CPI INFLATION According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in August, repeating July’s pace and in line with the consensus forecasts that led up to the data release. The annual CPI measure fell for the fifth consecutive month to 2.5%, its lowest since …
1. FED POISED TO PIVOT The FOMC is poised to cut interest rates in September for the first time in over two and a half years, evidenced by recent statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a 100% consensus forecast that has formed in futures markets. During a speech at the Fed’s annual retreat in …
1. AI AND COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE A recent article by MSCI Real Capital Analytics suggests that despite the growing concern about AI’s potential impact on commercial real estate, a balanced view should be taken that considers both the economic risks of AI and its potential positive impact on productivity. The authors argue that AI could …
1. INFLATION According to the BLS, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaccelerated on a monthly basis in July but continued to decelerate annually. Prices rose by 0.2% between June and July, following a decline of 0.1% the previous month. Prices decelerated to 2.9% year-over-year before seasonal adjustment. The monthly uptick in Core-CPI, which excludes …