1. CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS (BEIGE BOOK) According to the March 6th, 2024, release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, national economic activity increased over the previous six-week period. Eight of the twelve Federal Reserve districts reported slight to modest growth; three indicated soft growth, while one indicated a slight softening of growth. Consumer spending ticked …
1. HOMEBUILDING SENTIMENT RISES According to the latest data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), homebuilding confidence is on the rise. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) rose seven index points to a level of 42, its highest reading since September and the most significant monthly increase in the index since June …
1. INFLATION According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% month over month in January and 3.1% annually. The monthly pace of CPI rose above market expectations and triggered a brief reversal in equity markets. Fed officials have also been increasingly warning against a premature judgment on the path of …
1. JANUARY JOBS REPORT According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 517,000 jobs in January while the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.4%. The number of unemployed persons was also little changed at 5.7 million. On the surface, the January report registered way above most industry expectations, with some observers …
1. FOMC INTEREST RATE DECISION The FOMC left its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its January policy meeting as improving inflation and consumer expectations data has reduced the committee’s need to continue its monetary tightening. Still, the timing of potential rate cuts in 2024 remains uncertain as officials grapple with the complexity of domestic …
1. GDP Real GDP increased at a 2.9% annual rate in Q4 2022, according to the advance estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economic output has slowed from Q3 2022, when real GDP grew at a 3.2% annual rate. While recession fears have amplified heading into 2023, economic output has remained robust from a …
1. GDP Real US GDP expanded at a 3.3% annualized rate during Q4 of 2023, according to the advanced estimate from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The estimate surpasses the consensus projection of 2% and follows a 4.9% growth rate in Q3, bringing total 2023 US GDP to 2.5% compared to 1.9% in 2022. …
1. CPI INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.5% year-over-year and just 0.1% month-over-month, according to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — relatively in line with most industry estimates. The annual inflation rate has now fallen for six consecutive months. Core CPI, which removes food and energy prices from the …
1. DECEMBER JOBS REPORT • US nonfarm payrolls increased by 216,000 in December, above November’s growth of 173,000 jobs and exceeding the consensus estimate of 170,000 according to the Census Bureau’s latest employment report. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell during the final week of 2023, indicating that the US labor market remains tighter than some …
1. FED MEETING MINUTES Minutes from the FOMC’s May 2-3 policy meeting showed that central bank policymakers were split on the decision to continue raising interest rates or pause increases during its most recent vote. Ultimately, the decision to raise rates by 25 basis points in May was unanimous. However, the minutes signal that officials …