APRIL 10, 2025 Economic Update

1. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM DECLINES According to the National Association of Independent Business (NFIB) in March, small business optimism experienced its most substantial decline in nearly three years, driven by a collapse in expectations around future business and sales conditions. The share of owners who expect better future business conditions fell by its largest monthly …

MARCH 27, 2025 Economic Update

1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE US Consumer Confidence dipped sharply in March, according to the Conference Board’s latest numbers. The index fell 7.2 points to 92.9, its fourth consecutive monthly decline and lowest reading since January 2021. The reading fell short of expectations. Consumers’ increasing concerns about their financial futures are weighing down on the index as …

APRIL 24, 2025 Economic Update

1. LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.7% in March, pointing to slowing economic activity in the near term. March’s decline coincided with soaring economic uncertainty ahead of tariff announcements. Consumer expectations fell, and stock prices experienced their largest monthly decline since September 2022. The Conference Board stresses …

MARCH 13, 2025 Economic Update

1. CPI INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in February and 2.8% year-over-year, cooling more than expected and potentially providing some relief to markets and policymakers on guard about price pressures.  Core-CPI, which removes the more volatile food and energy components, mirrored the headline 0.2% month-over-month figure but arrived slightly higher on an …

DECEMBER 19, 2024 Economic Update

1. INTEREST RATE DECISION  The Federal Reserve cut rates by another 25 basis points in December, its third consecutive rate cut as policymakers move into a more accommodative monetary stance as inflation cools and labor market performance comes more into focus.  The federal funds rate now sits at 4.25%-4.50%, while the “dot-plot”, which indicates FOMC …

OCTOBER 24, 2024 Economic Update

1. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REMAINS STEADY  According to the October 23rd release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book Summary of National Economic Activity, activity has changed little in nearly all districts since early September, though two districts have reported modest growth. The latest Beige Book provides an additional glimpse at how the US economy has performed …