1. FOMC MEETING MINUTES The meeting minutes from the FOMC’s May 6-7 policy meeting show that officials see increased recession risks in the wake of tariffs, arguing that a recession is now “almost as likely” as their baseline forecast of low GDP growth for 2025. Officials held rates unchanged at their May meeting as they …
1. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM DECLINES According to the National Association of Independent Business (NFIB) in March, small business optimism experienced its most substantial decline in nearly three years, driven by a collapse in expectations around future business and sales conditions. The share of owners who expect better future business conditions fell by its largest monthly …
1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE US Consumer Confidence dipped sharply in March, according to the Conference Board’s latest numbers. The index fell 7.2 points to 92.9, its fourth consecutive monthly decline and lowest reading since January 2021. The reading fell short of expectations. Consumers’ increasing concerns about their financial futures are weighing down on the index as …
1. LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.7% in March, pointing to slowing economic activity in the near term. March’s decline coincided with soaring economic uncertainty ahead of tariff announcements. Consumer expectations fell, and stock prices experienced their largest monthly decline since September 2022. The Conference Board stresses …
1. CPI INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in February and 2.8% year-over-year, cooling more than expected and potentially providing some relief to markets and policymakers on guard about price pressures. Core-CPI, which removes the more volatile food and energy components, mirrored the headline 0.2% month-over-month figure but arrived slightly higher on an …
1. CPI INFLATION Consumer prices rose 0.5% from December and 3.0% year-over-year, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The typically more volatile food and energy prices were key contributors to the increase, but core prices, which remove the items, were also up 0.4% on the month and 3.3% over the …
1. INTEREST RATE DECISION The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50% at its January meeting, on par with market expectations. Solid labor market performance and somewhat elevated inflation kept officials neutral as they continued to assess the impact of the three consecutive rate cuts made at the end of 2024. A slight adjustment in …
1. INTEREST RATE DECISION The Federal Reserve cut rates by another 25 basis points in December, its third consecutive rate cut as policymakers move into a more accommodative monetary stance as inflation cools and labor market performance comes more into focus. The federal funds rate now sits at 4.25%-4.50%, while the “dot-plot”, which indicates FOMC …
1. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REMAINS STEADY According to the October 23rd release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book Summary of National Economic Activity, activity has changed little in nearly all districts since early September, though two districts have reported modest growth. The latest Beige Book provides an additional glimpse at how the US economy has performed …
1. FED INTEREST RATE DECISION On June 14th, The Federal Reserve announced a pause in interest-rate increases as it assesses the effects of its tightening efforts on the economy, holding the target federal funds rate at 5.0-5.25% while signaling the likelihood of further rate hikes this year. The decision was unanimous and followed ten consecutive …