OCTOBER 29, 2026 Economic Update

1. FROM CAUTION TO OPPORTUNITY

  • Hospitality entered 2026 as one of the most cautiously approached sectors, held back by rising operating costs and buyer-seller pricing gaps. By late summer, deal activity is picking up and capital is moving beyond trophy assets, though unevenly.

2. HOTELS ARE UNDERWRITTEN LIKE BUSINESSES

  • Without long-term leases, hotel value follows operating performance, measured through ADR, occupancy, and RevPAR
    rather than rent rolls.
  • Flagged hotels must meet brand standards and renovation cycles and fund FF&E reserves, so a property that looks
    attractively priced can carry a large capital requirement.
  • 3. PERFORMANCE IS SPLITTING BY CHAIN SCALE

    • The PwC and ULI Emerging Trends 2026 report found the luxury-economy divide accelerated. Through August 2026,
      luxury RevPAR grew 5.3% year-to-date while economy hotels declined 1.8%.
    • Luxury offers stronger near-term performance but premium pricing and heavy competition. Economy and midscale
      softness can create entry points through rebranding, renovation, or tighter management, often in secondary markets. The
      key is separating a fixable problem from lasting demand decline.

    4. CAPITAL IS RETURNING, BUT COSTS STILL BITE

    • CRE Daily reports hotel REITs are seeing increased deal flow, with activity spreading beyond luxury and bidder pools deepening. Narrowing buyer-seller gaps could accelerate acquisitions through 2026 and into 2027.
    • Nearly three-quarters of Emerging Trends respondents named labor costs and availability a critical 2026 issue, so buyers should stress-test expenses as rigorously as revenue.

    5. BEYOND HOTELS: GOLF AND RESORTS

    • Golf and resort properties follow the same operating-business logic with added layers: memberships, green fees, lodging, dining, events, seasonality, and land and amenity condition.
    • Supply constraints can support pricing. CRE Daily reports Florida Keys hotel demand rose 4% at the start of 2026, with first-half RevPAR averaging $409. Other leisure markets face overbuilding, so supply analysis comes first.

    6. KEY TAKEAWAYS

    • Deal activity is broadening and the luxury-economy gap creates value-add entry points, but disciplined expense
      underwriting is essential. Look for advisors with operational fluency, buyer reach, and dedicated hospitality expertise.

    SUMMARY OF SOURCES

    • (1) https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/financial-services/asset-wealth-management/real-estate/emerging-trends-in-real-estate-pwc-uli/property-type-outlook/hospitality.html
    • (2) https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/financial-services/asset-wealth-management/real-estate/emerging-trends-in-real-estate-pwc-uli/trends.html
    • (3) https://www.credaily.com/briefs/hotel-reit-activity-climbs-as-market-fundamentals-improve/
    • (4) https://www.credaily.com/briefs/hotel-investors-return-as-florida-keys-rebound-gains-steam/