1. WHY TRANSACTION VOLUME MATTERS

Volume is a practical read on liquidity: rising volume suggests buyers and sellers agree on price and lenders are active, while falling volume points to pricing gaps, tighter credit, and longer holds. A few large trades can skew a quarter, so composition often says more than size.

2. BIGGER DEALS, NOT MORE DEALS

SVN Research, using Altus Group data, shows Q2 2026 US dollar volume up 11.3% quarter-over-quarter and 9.4%
year-over-year, with trailing four-quarter volume up 16.3%. The number of transactions was roughly flat year-over-year.

57% of transacted dollars came from deals above $10 million, pointing to institutional capital returning selectively rather than a broad rebound.

CRE Daily reports Q2 investment sales of $136.6 billion, up 14%, yet MSCI’s seasonally adjusted individual-asset sales implied a 13% decline in activity.

3. THE MIDDLE MARKET IS STILL WAITING

Mid-market and smaller-format deals have yet to recover meaningfully, even though CRE Daily estimates middle-market sponsors control $5.1 trillion in US commercial real estate, with fragmented ownership limiting access to institutional capital.
Sellers may face thinner buyer pools and longer marketing periods, while buyers may find less competition and more room to negotiate. In secondary markets, local submarket knowledge matters more than national benchmarks.

4. CAPITAL IS PICKING FAVORITES

Industrial stood out in Q2, with median price per square foot up 13.2% and median deal size up 18.4% year-over-year, supported by data center and power demand. Apartment transactions ran 59% above the pre-pandemic average, while
office volume was essentially flat.
Concentration brings risk. MSCI’s chief economist has questioned whether allocators are still chasing the outsized industrial and residential performance of recent years as forward prospects normalize.

5. RATES AND KEY TAKEAWAYS

On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since 2023, and most officials signaled another hike is possible. Higher borrowing costs could weigh on leveraged mid-market buyers and tilt volume toward well-capitalized investors.
Rising dollars with a flat deal count means fewer, larger transactions are driving the recovery. Confirm forward
fundamentals support pricing before following volume into a favored sector. SVN Advisors pair national research with
local market knowledge.

SUMMARY OF SOURCES

(1) https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/cre-sales-hit-136-6b-165948563.html
(2) https://www.credaily.com/briefs/middle-market-cre-sponsors-control-5-1-trillion-in-assets/
(3) https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
(4) https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm