1. OCTOBER EMPLOYMENT UPDATE In lieu of the usual monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, recent private jobs data illustrate persisting labor market weakness during September. The ADP National Employment report, which tracks private payrolls, showed a decline of -32,000 jobs during September and follows a reported decline of 3,000 jobs in …
1. FED INTEREST RATE DECISION The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting, with just one official dissenting in favor of a larger, 50-basis-point cut. The Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections — released alongside the rate decision — lowers its forecast for next year’s interest …
1. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year in August, roughly in line with market estimates. While both the monthly and annual CPI rates were higher than in July, the marginal acceleration in inflation pressures is unlikely to dissuade the FOMC from …
1. CPI INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year in July. It marked the third consecutive month that prices accelerated on an annual basis, following three consecutive decreases to begin the year. Price pressures rose for items such as used cars and trucks, transportation services, and new vehicles, but fell …
1. CPI INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated in June, rising 0.3% from May and 2.7% over the past twelve months, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Core-CPI, which removes the more volatile food and energy components, also accelerated relative to the past few months, up 0.2% month-over-month …
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1. FOMC MEETING MINUTES The meeting minutes from the FOMC’s May 6-7 policy meeting show that officials see increased recession risks in the wake of tariffs, arguing that a recession is now “almost as likely” as their baseline forecast of low GDP growth for 2025. Officials held rates unchanged at their May meeting as they …
1. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM DECLINES According to the National Association of Independent Business (NFIB) in March, small business optimism experienced its most substantial decline in nearly three years, driven by a collapse in expectations around future business and sales conditions. The share of owners who expect better future business conditions fell by its largest monthly …
1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE US Consumer Confidence dipped sharply in March, according to the Conference Board’s latest numbers. The index fell 7.2 points to 92.9, its fourth consecutive monthly decline and lowest reading since January 2021. The reading fell short of expectations. Consumers’ increasing concerns about their financial futures are weighing down on the index as …
1. LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.7% in March, pointing to slowing economic activity in the near term. March’s decline coincided with soaring economic uncertainty ahead of tariff announcements. Consumer expectations fell, and stock prices experienced their largest monthly decline since September 2022. The Conference Board stresses …